The World Bank releases new growth projections because of the economic recovery in Pakistan

ByShehryar Makhdoom
the-world-bank-releases-new-growth-projections-because-of-economic-recovery

Pakistan's GDP prediction for the current fiscal year was revised from 0.8 percent previously to 1.3 percent.

The modification has occurred following higher remittance inflows. WB published its flagship report on global economic prospects, which stated, "Pakistani GDP growth is now estimated to be 1.3% in FY 2020/21, supported by increasing remittance inflows and improved confidence, but investment growth is projected to be negative due to heightened COVID-19 flare-ups."

Fiscal and monetary policies are projected to stay easy for the foreseeable future. Real policy interest rates, or the central bank policy support, are predicted to continue negative into 2021.

Nonetheless, with the change, Pakistan is projected to experience slower growth than its neighbours, with Bangladesh seeing 3.6%, India 8.3%, Maldives 17.1%, Nepal 2.7%, and Sri Lanka 3.4%.

A recent upsurge in COVID-19 cases is adding to the difficulties Pakistan faces in recovering from the devastation. Employment and retail mobility are below pre-pandemic levels once again.

WB predicts that development in Pakistan would revert to 2% in FY 2018 and increase to 3.4% by FY 2023. The improved number is 0.5% (a substantial improvement).

Shaukat Tarin, the Finance Minister, stated that the LSM figures would be used to calculate the current and forthcoming fiscal year's growth. The minister forecasts that the larger-scale industry recovery will be stronger and greater than the central bank's cautious approach.

The SBP has amended its prior growth forecast to 3% following the resurgence in the manufacturing sector as a result of the government and foreign assistance during the COVID-19 lockout and fiscal stimulus.

Comment